Well I wish it had more information to share but as it states in the article there is not enough evidence to determine the rate of recurrence of low back in PT. Novel idea though and I think a great systematic review to revisit again in the future.

Ahead of print article here: Risk of recurrence of low back pain: a systematic review – Ahead of print

Study Design
Systematic review.

Background
While most people with acute low back pain (LBP) recover quickly, recurrences are believed to be common. No high quality systematic review has been published on the risk of recurrences of LBP, or of factors which predict LBP recurrence.

Objectives
The aim of this study was to investigate the risk of and prognostic factors for a recurrence of LBP, in patients who have recovered from a previous episode of LBP within the last year.

Methods
Systematic searches were conducted of MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL databases. We included longitudinal studies of adults who had recovered from a previous episode of LBP within 12 months. The primary outcome was a new episode of LBP. Secondary outcomes were other types of recurrence (e.g. episodes causing care seeking).

Results
Eight studies were included in the review: seven observational studies and one randomized trial (two publications). Six studies reported recurrence proportions for the primary outcome of an episode of LBP. Meta-analysis was not conducted due to the low quality and heterogeneity of studies. Only one study was considered an inception cohort study; it reported a one year recurrence proportion of 33%. A history of previous episodes of LBP prior to the most recent episode was the only factor that consistently predicted recurrence of LBP.

Conclusion
The available research does not provide robust estimates of the risk of LBP recurrence and provides little information about factors that predict recurrence in people recently recovered from an episode of LBP.

Level of Evidence
Prognosis, 1a-. Prospectively registered in PROSPERO 9 February, 2016 (CRD42016030220).J Orthop Sports Phys Ther, Epub 29 Mar 2017. doi:10.2519/jospt.2017.7415

photo credit from: https://www.geneticliteracyproject.org

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